tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 63%

  1. 12:27 TVC → 12:58 ORD
    AA 4190 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 31m · 90% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 45m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:43 ORD → 17:32 MSP
    AA 4425 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 49m · 74% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Traverse City). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 120 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 45m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 05mTVC 12:27 to MSP 17:32, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.