tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 74%

  1. 05:00 ROC → 05:54 ORD
    AA 4247 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 54m · 99% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:02 ORD → 10:03 DCA
    AA 2965 · American · 2h 01m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 03mROC 05:00 to DCA 10:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.