tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 75%

  1. 05:00 ROC → 05:54 ORD
    AA 4247 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 54m · 99% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:44 ORD → 10:02 EWR
    AA 3170 · American · 2h 18m · 81% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 02mROC 05:00 to EWR 10:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.