tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Asheville → Chicago via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 49%

  1. 07:01 AVL → 08:44 DFW
    AA 4261 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 43m · 82% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:35 DFW → 12:14 ORD
    AA 1290 · American · 2h 39m · 69% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Asheville). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 13mAVL 07:01 to ORD 12:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.