tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rapid City → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 73%

  1. 06:30 RAP → 10:00 DFW
    AA 4277 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 30m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:50 DFW → 11:19 PHX
    AA 2990 · American · 2h 29m · 85% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Rapid City). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip5h 49mRAP 06:30 to PHX 11:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.