tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Anchorage via Seattle: arrives on time 85%

  1. 17:55 PHX → 21:05 SEA
    AA 4307 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 10m · 84% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 54m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 23:59 SEA → 02:40 ANC +1 day
    AS 1363 · Alaska · 3h 41m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 84 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 54m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip9h 45mPHX 17:55 to ANC 02:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.