tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 90%

  1. 05:00 MSN → 06:15 ORD
    AA 4322 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 15m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 09:02 ORD → 11:03 PHX
    UA 2225 · United · 4h 01m · 95% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 77 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 47m layover.
Arrives on time90%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (95%).
Total trip8h 03mMSN 05:00 to PHX 11:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.