tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Manchester via Washington: arrives on time 30%

  1. 19:25 PHL → 20:41 DCA
    AA 5019 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 16m · 54% on time, 16.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:11 DCA → 23:48 MHT
    AA 5283 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 37m · 58% on time, 10.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (16.3% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (10.3% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 23mPHL 19:25 to MHT 23:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.