tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Charlotte: arrives on time 43%

  1. 12:54 DCA → 14:34 CLT
    AA 5022 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 40m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 43m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:17 CLT → 17:53 XNA
    AA 5443 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 34m · 60% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 58 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 43m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 57mDCA 12:54 to XNA 17:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.