tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Buffalo via Philadelphia: arrives on time 57%

  1. 09:50 ATL → 11:59 PHL
    AA 5037 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 09m · 87% on time, 5.9% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:50 PHL → 14:19 BUF
    AA 6041 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 29m · 77% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (5.9% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip4h 29mATL 09:50 to BUF 14:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.