tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Wilmington via Charlotte: arrives on time 51%

  1. 18:45 ATL → 20:23 CLT
    AA 5040 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 34m · 49% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 17m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 CLT → 23:49 ILM
    AA 1017 · American · 1h 08m · 72% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 92 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 17m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 03mATL 18:45 to ILM 23:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.