tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Norfolk via Charlotte: arrives on time 48%

  1. 18:45 ATL → 20:23 CLT
    AA 5040 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 34m · 49% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 06m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:29 CLT → 23:43 ORF
    AA 2674 · American · 1h 16m · 70% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 81 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 06m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 00mATL 18:45 to ORF 23:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.