tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 24%

  1. 16:46 CLT → 18:14 ATL
    AA 5040 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 28m · 46% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 29m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:43 ATL → 21:11 ORD
    AA 1372 · American · 2h 33m · 43% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip5h 30mCLT 16:46 to ORD 21:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.