tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hartford → Philadelphia via Washington: arrives on time 16%

  1. 14:16 BDL → 16:03 DCA
    AA 5059 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 38m · 51% on time, 12.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:18 DCA → 18:32 PHL
    AA 5406 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 14m · 39% on time, 10.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (12.7% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (10.2% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip4h 16mBDL 14:16 to PHL 18:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.