tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bangor → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 35%

  1. 10:59 BGR → 13:08 DCA
    AA 5061 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 09m · 74% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:59 DCA → 15:23 ORD
    AA 2398 · American · 2h 24m · 61% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Bangor). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 24mBGR 10:59 to ORD 15:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.