tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Nashville via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 23%

  1. 15:12 BHM → 17:24 DFW
    AA 5063 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 12m · 48% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:18 DFW → 20:17 BNA
    AA 1076 · American · 1h 59m · 61% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 05mBHM 15:12 to BNA 20:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.