tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Miami via Philadelphia: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:47 BHM → 21:07 PHL
    AA 5064 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 20m · 63% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 PHL → 00:52 MIA +1 day
    AA 2936 · American · 2h 57m · 61% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip6h 05mBHM 17:47 to MIA 00:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.