tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Atlanta via Philadelphia: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:47 BHM → 21:07 PHL
    AA 5064 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 20m · 63% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:58 PHL → 00:15 ATL +1 day
    AA 443 · American · 2h 17m · 77% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 28mBHM 17:47 to ATL 00:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.