tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Washington via Charlotte: arrives on time 28%

  1. 14:45 BHM → 17:29 CLT
    AA 5075 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 44m · 62% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:22 CLT → 20:00 DCA
    AA 2386 · American · 1h 38m · 58% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 15mBHM 14:45 to DCA 20:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.