tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 26%

  1. 14:45 BHM → 17:29 CLT
    AA 5075 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 44m · 62% on time, 3.2% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:26 CLT → 19:51 ORD
    AA 2488 · American · 2h 25m · 47% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (3.2% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip5h 06mBHM 14:45 to ORD 19:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.