tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Washington via Charlotte: arrives on time 29%

  1. 18:42 BHM → 21:27 CLT
    AA 5077 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 45m · 48% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:28 CLT → 23:53 DCA
    AA 1269 · American · 1h 26m · 64% on time, 4.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (4.4% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 12mBHM 18:42 to DCA 23:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.