tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Philadelphia via Charlotte: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:42 BHM → 21:27 CLT
    AA 5077 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 45m · 48% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:29 CLT → 00:17 PHL +1 day
    AA 2189 · American · 1h 48m · 74% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 35mBHM 18:42 to PHL 00:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.