tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 12%

  1. 14:20 DCA → 16:26 ATL
    AA 5084 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 06m · 32% on time, 6.7% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:17 ATL → 18:53 ORD
    AA 4759 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 33m · 58% on time, 9.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection25%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 75% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time12%First flight not cancelled (6.7% are) × connection made (25%) × second flight not cancelled (9.1% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 30mDCA 14:20 to ORD 18:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.