tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → New York via Washington: arrives on time 38%

  1. 10:24 MEM → 13:44 DCA
    AA 5091 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 22m · 64% on time, 5.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:56 DCA → 16:33 LGA
    AA 4773 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 34m · 64% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (5.7% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 06mMEM 10:24 to LGA 16:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.