tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:25 BUF → 18:59 DCA
    AA 5106 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 32m · 42% on time, 15.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:06 DCA → 21:42 ORD
    AA 2903 · American · 2h 36m · 77% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (15.7% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 17mBUF 17:25 to ORD 21:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.