tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Minneapolis via Washington: arrives on time 15%

  1. 17:25 BUF → 18:59 DCA
    AA 5106 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 32m · 42% on time, 15.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 DCA → 21:54 MSP
    AA 5506 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 52m · 47% on time, 19.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (15.7% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (19.7% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip5h 32mBUF 17:25 to MSP 21:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.