tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Detroit via Washington: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:25 BUF → 18:59 DCA
    AA 5106 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 32m · 42% on time, 15.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 DCA → 22:44 DTW
    AA 5597 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 44m · 51% on time, 9.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (15.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (9.3% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 18mBUF 17:25 to DTW 22:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.