tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Boston via Washington: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:25 BUF → 18:59 DCA
    AA 5106 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 32m · 42% on time, 15.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 41m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:40 DCA → 22:19 BOS
    AA 4382 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 41m · 67% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 56 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 41m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (15.7% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 56mBUF 17:25 to BOS 22:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.