tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → New York via Buffalo: arrives on time 25%

  1. 15:25 DCA → 16:55 BUF
    AA 5106 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 30m · 38% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Buffalo (BUF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:11 BUF → 19:40 LGA
    AA 4378 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 60% on time, 16.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (16.1% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip4h 15mDCA 15:25 to LGA 19:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.