tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Cleveland → Seattle via Philadelphia: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:12 CLE → 18:47 PHL
    AA 5129 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 35m · 64% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:35 PHL → 22:56 SEA
    AA 3259 · American · 6h 21m · 72% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Cleveland). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip8h 44mCLE 17:12 to SEA 22:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.