tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Cleveland → Minneapolis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 37%

  1. 17:12 CLE → 18:47 PHL
    AA 5129 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 35m · 64% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 PHL → 22:02 MSP
    AA 5460 · American, flown by PSA · 3h 12m · 70% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Cleveland). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 50mCLE 17:12 to MSP 22:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.