tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dayton → Chicago via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 30%

  1. 18:32 DAY → 20:11 DFW
    AA 5156 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 39m · 61% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 DFW → 23:39 ORD
    AA 2346 · American · 2h 39m · 63% on time, 5.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Dayton). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (5.9% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip6h 07mDAY 18:32 to ORD 23:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.