tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dayton → Washington via Charlotte: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:57 DAY → 19:45 CLT
    AA 5158 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 49m · 60% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:49 CLT → 22:20 DCA
    AA 527 · American · 1h 31m · 57% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 23mDAY 17:57 to DCA 22:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.