tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dayton → Dulles via Charlotte: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:57 DAY → 19:45 CLT
    AA 5158 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 49m · 60% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:31 CLT → 22:05 IAD
    AA 5549 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 34m · 55% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip4h 08mDAY 17:57 to IAD 22:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.