tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dayton → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 70%

  1. 09:34 DAY → 11:10 DCA
    AA 5159 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 36m · 87% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 49m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:59 DCA → 15:24 ORD
    AA 1200 · American · 2h 25m · 75% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Dayton). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 124 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 49m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 50mDAY 09:34 to ORD 15:24, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.