tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Chicago via Dayton: arrives on time 96%

  1. 07:29 DCA → 09:04 DAY
    AA 5159 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 38m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 25m layover in Dayton (DAY) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:29 DAY → 12:54 ORD
    AA 3786 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 25m · 96% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 160 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 25m layover.
Arrives on time96%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (96%).
Total trip6h 25mDCA 07:29 to ORD 12:54, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.