tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 80%

  1. 06:00 MHT → 07:50 DCA
    AA 5160 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 55m · 85% on time, 6.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 40m layover in Washington (DCA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 10:30 DCA → 11:48 ORD
    UA 2201 · United · 2h 18m · 91% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Manchester). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 70 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 40m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (6.1% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip6h 48mMHT 06:00 to ORD 11:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.