tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dayton → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 26%

  1. 17:40 DAY → 19:15 DCA
    AA 5162 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 35m · 47% on time, 13.5% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:06 DCA → 21:42 ORD
    AA 2903 · American · 2h 36m · 77% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Dayton). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (13.5% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 02mDAY 17:40 to ORD 21:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.