tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Des Moines → Phoenix via Philadelphia: arrives on time 36%

  1. 13:04 DSM → 16:44 PHL
    AA 5165 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 40m · 71% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 PHL → 19:37 PHX
    AA 1984 · American · 5h 07m · 64% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Des Moines). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip8h 33mDSM 13:04 to PHX 19:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.