tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Miami via Washington: arrives on time 23%

  1. 17:29 DTW → 19:15 DCA
    AA 5172 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 43m · 45% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DCA → 22:58 MIA
    AA 1233 · American · 2h 48m · 63% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 29mDTW 17:29 to MIA 22:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.