tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Des Moines via Washington: arrives on time 22%

  1. 17:29 DTW → 19:15 DCA
    AA 5172 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 43m · 45% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 DCA → 21:57 DSM
    AA 3685 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 42m · 56% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 28mDTW 17:29 to DSM 21:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.