tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Birmingham via Washington: arrives on time 18%

  1. 17:29 DTW → 19:15 DCA
    AA 5172 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 43m · 45% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 DCA → 21:28 BHM
    AA 5643 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 13m · 52% on time, 17.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (17.1% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip4h 59mDTW 17:29 to BHM 21:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.