tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Norfolk via Washington: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:29 DTW → 19:15 DCA
    AA 5172 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 43m · 45% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 32m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:47 DCA → 21:53 ORF
    AA 5662 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 05m · 59% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 47 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 32m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 23mDTW 17:29 to ORF 21:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.