tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hebron → Raleigh/Durham via Washington: arrives on time 23%

  1. 17:07 CVG → 18:53 DCA
    AA 5199 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 46m · 50% on time, 18.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 DCA → 21:12 RDU
    AA 2083 · American · 1h 12m · 57% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (18.2% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 05mCVG 17:07 to RDU 21:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.