tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Grand Rapids → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 30%

  1. 14:03 GRR → 15:59 DCA
    AA 5200 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 53m · 36% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 DCA → 18:54 ORD
    AA 1630 · American · 2h 32m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Grand Rapids). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 51mGRR 14:03 to ORD 18:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.