tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Grand Rapids → Orlando via Washington: arrives on time 20%

  1. 14:03 GRR → 15:59 DCA
    AA 5200 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 53m · 36% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 DCA → 19:40 MCO
    AA 2139 · American · 2h 31m · 57% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 28mGRR 14:03 to MCO 19:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.