tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Grand Rapids → New York via Washington: arrives on time 24%

  1. 14:03 GRR → 15:59 DCA
    AA 5200 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 53m · 36% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 27m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:26 DCA → 18:57 LGA
    AA 4685 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 31m · 55% on time, 13.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 42 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 27m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (13.7% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip4h 54mGRR 14:03 to LGA 18:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.