tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Columbus → San Francisco via Philadelphia: arrives on time 24%

  1. 15:10 CMH → 16:46 PHL
    AA 5210 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 36m · 62% on time, 13.3% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 PHL → 20:47 SFO
    AA 2663 · American · 6h 12m · 60% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Columbus). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (13.3% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip8h 37mCMH 15:10 to SFO 20:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.