tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Dayton via Charlotte: arrives on time 32%

  1. 13:08 IAD → 14:42 CLT
    AA 5220 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 34m · 72% on time, 5.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:30 CLT → 17:12 DAY
    AA 5198 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 42m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (5.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 04mIAD 13:08 to DAY 17:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.