tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Charlotte via Wilmington: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:41 DCA → 19:14 ILM
    AA 5229 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 36m · 51% on time, 11.3% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Wilmington (ILM) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:01 ILM → 21:16 CLT
    AA 1933 · American · 1h 15m · 77% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 3h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (11.3% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip3h 35mDCA 17:41 to CLT 21:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.